The Premier League will end up in the hands of Man City, who welcome Chelsea to the Etihad this Sunday. A win here (unless Arsenal lose on Saturday, in which case it’s already done) secures that achievement and puts Man City close to the treble that they crave so much.
Chelsea have had their hardest season in a long, long time, but can they delay the inevitable with a famous win or will Pep Guardiola’s ruthless Man City bat them aside? Don’t miss our Manchester City vs. Chelsea EPL betting picks and predictions for Sunday, May 21.
Man City vs Chelsea best odds
Man City vs Chelsea picks and predictions
Sunday should see the crowning of this year’s Premier League champion with Man City vs. Chelsea. There’s a chance an Arsenal defeat against Nottingham Forest on Saturday could hand them the trophy without even playing but it’s unlikely — as is Man City dropping points here against a poor Chelsea team.
Let’s get straight into our best bet for this game, which is Manchester City -1 at odds of -140. I don’t usually recommend wagers at -140 but I simply can’t see this not happening, and some bookies have it at -162, so we’re getting value at this price. It’s been quite hard to find value on this game in general with Man City to win at -390 and an Erling Haaland goal at a best price of -200. One wager I toyed with suggesting was Man City to win at halftime and fulltime, something they’ve done in 18 of 35 Premier League games this season and five of their last six. At -125 that’s another good price, but this Man City -1 just felt safer.
The angle almost feels like it doesn’t need explaining at this point, but lets do it anyway. This team is one of the greatest to ever play in the Premier League. They’ve scored 92 goals through 35 EPL matches, that’s nine more than their nearest competitor (Arsenal) with a game less. Up front they have Erling Haaland, with the Norwegian scoring 52 goals for his club this season, 36 coming in the league. He’s so dominant that he alone has scored more, or as many, goals as five Premier League clubs have scored all season.
You only need to look at Man City’s recent form to see why the spread leaps off the page. On Wednesday they demolished Real Madrid 4-0 in what was probably the most dominant performance in Champions League semifinal history.
To put it simply, this Manchester City team are a side who are at their very best, the same cannot be said for Chelsea. It’s been a long, hard season for Chelsea and the supporters, with the club sacking Thomas Tuchel, then his replacement Graham Potter, before putting the remaining games of the season in the hands of Frank Lampard, a club legend who they’ve already sacked once before.
Chelsea have won just 11 Premier League games this season, the same as Crystal Palace, Wolves and Bournemouth. With the greatest of respect to those clubs that isn’t what you expect when you spend as much as Chelsea have in the transfer market.
In many ways Chelsea have become a joke, the ownership are playing a video game and throwing their money around with little to no understanding of who they are buying or why they’re signing them. There’s no coherent strategy and they’ve lurched from disaster to disaster this season.
Chelsea have allowed their opponents to score in each of their last eight games in all competitions, including the likes of Bournemouth and Wolves, who offer far less offensively than this Man City team. They’ve met twice this year in the Premier League and FA Cup with City scoring five goals while Chelsea managed none.
At -140 you’re not going to get rich from this wager but it’s a smart way to increase the bank roll for another opportunity. Let’s keep it ticking over by backing Man City to win with a -1 handicap.
My best bet: Man City -1.5 (-140 at Caesars)
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Man City vs Chelsea side analysis
Man City aren’t dealing with many injuries here, in stark contrast to Chelsea, with the home side only missing Nathan Ake. That means we should see Pep Guardiola’s first choice team and most likely the same team that beat Real Madrid on Wednesday. Guardiola will know — a win here means they can rest their stars in next week’s finale.
That’ll mean Ederson in goal, with a back four of Kyle Walker, Ruben Dias, John Stones and Manuel Akanji. Rodri and Ilkay Gundogan in midfield with Bernardo Silva, Kevin De Bruyne and Jack Grealish all supporting Erling Haaland.
It’s far harder to predict Chelsea’s team, even with their injuries, seeing as Frank Lampard insists on changing it nearly every week. Edouard Mendy started last weekend in goal, almost out of nowhere and could play again but given his mistake we’ll sure see Kepa back in goal. Elsewhere, Benoit Badiashile and Thiago Silva need to be at the back and Lewis Hall will be forced to play at leftback given the injuries, with potentially Trevoh Chalobah on the right.
Enzo Fernandez will be in the middle, although it’s hard to pick the two who’ll be with him. We should see a front three of Joao Felix, Noni Madueke and Raheem Sterling. Madueke has impressed since arriving from the Netherlands and Sterling scored two last time out and has to start here against his former team.
There’s no value to be had in backing Man City at -390 but at the same time, I simply can’t see anything but a win for Guardiola’s team.
Man City vs Chelsea Over/Under analysis
I’m backing the handicap here, so it goes without saying that I expect plenty of goals. Despite that, I wouldn’t personally bet on Over 2.5 goals at -195, I think there’s better ways to bet on this game having goals, such as the spread.
There have been Over 2.5 goals in 88.9% of Man City’s Premier League games at the Etihad, but the guests have generally been in lower-scoring games this year with Over 2.5 goals in just 47.1% of their games away from Stamford Bridge. That said, they rarely face trips to sides as good as Man City and I’m not worried at all about the Over failing here.
Man City vs Chelsea game info
|Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
|Sunday, May 21, 2023
|11:00 a.m. ET
Man City vs Chelsea key injuries
Man City: Nathan Ake CB (Questionable).
Chelsea: Reece James RB (Out), Mason Mount CM (Out), Armando Broja STR (Out), Marc Cucurella LB (Out), Ben Chilwell LB (Out), N’Golo Kante CM (Out), Kalidou Koulibaly CB (Questionable), Mateo Kovacic CM (Questionable).
Man City vs Chelsea recent form
|Last five matches
| Man City
Man City vs Chelsea weather
London will be dry but cloudy with temperatures in the mid-60s at kickoff.
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